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Widespread concerns about President Biden’s age pose a deepening threat to his re-election bid, with a majority of voters who supported him in 2020 now saying he is too old to lead the country effectively, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College. The survey pointed to a fundamental shift in how voters who backed Mr. Biden four years ago have come to see him. A striking 61 percent said they thought he was “just too old” to be an effective president. The misgivings about Mr. Biden’s age cut across generations, gender, race and education, underscoring the president’s failure to dispel both concerns within his own party and Republican attacks painting him as senile. Seventy-three percent of all registered voters said he was too old to be effective, and 45 percent expressed a belief that he could not do the job.
Persons: Biden’s, Biden Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College, Mr
But his overwhelming victory on Saturday in South Carolina, where he defeated Nikki Haley in her home state, makes it all but official. The Republican nominating contest isn’t a competition. The stakes were extraordinarily high: Many of his Republican opponents see Mr. Trump as, at best, unelectable and, at worst, a threat to the foundations of American democracy. And yet, as the campaign has moved through the first nominating contests, the race has not revealed Mr. Trump’s weaknesses, but instead the enduring nature of his ironclad grip on the Republican Party. “I think the party will be done with Trump when Trump is done with the party,” said David Kochel, a longtime Republican strategist who is opposed to Mr. Trump.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Nikki Haley, It’s, , David Kochel, Organizations: Republican, Republican Party, Capitol, Trump, Mr Locations: Iowa, South Carolina, New Hampshire, New York City
An Alabama Supreme Court ruling, that frozen embryos should be considered children, has created a new political nightmare for Republicans nationally, who distanced themselves from a fringe view about reproductive health that threatened to drive away voters in November. Several Republican governors and lawmakers swiftly disavowed the decision, made by a Republican-majority court, expressing support for in vitro fertilization treatments. Others declared they would not support federal restrictions on I.V.F., drawing a distinction between their support for broadly popular fertility treatments and their opposition to abortion. “The concern for years has been that I.V.F. would be taken away from women everywhere,” Representative Nancy Mace, Republican of South Carolina, said in an interview on Thursday.
Persons: Nancy Mace Organizations: Alabama Supreme, Republican Locations: Alabama, South Carolina, I.V.F
Allies of former President Donald J. Trump and officials who served in his administration are planning ways to restrict abortion rights if he returns to power that would go far beyond proposals for a national ban or the laws enacted in conservative states across the country. Behind the scenes, specific anti-abortion plans being proposed by Mr. Trump’s allies are sweeping and legally sophisticated. Some of their proposals would rely on enforcing the Comstock Act, a long-dormant law from 1873, to criminalize the shipping of any materials used in an abortion — including abortion pills, which account for the majority of abortions in America. “We don’t need a federal ban when we have Comstock on the books,” said Jonathan F. Mitchell, the legal force behind a 2021 Texas law that found a way to effectively ban abortion in the state before Roe v. Wade was overturned. “There’s a smorgasbord of options.”Mr. Mitchell, who represented Mr. Trump in arguments before the Supreme Court over whether the former president could appear on the ballot in Colorado, indicated that anti-abortion strategists had purposefully been quiet about their more advanced plans, given the political liability the issue has become for Republicans.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Trump’s, Comstock, , Jonathan F, Mitchell, Roe, Wade, Mr Locations: America, Texas, Colorado
Why Democrats Are Using Personal Abortion Stories
  + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( Lisa Lerer | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
When Dr. Austin Dennard, an OB-GYN in Dallas, learned that her 11-week-old fetus had a fatal medical condition in July 2022, she immediately understood the medical implications. What she didn’t know was that she would soon land in the middle of a lawsuit against the state of Texas — and in the midst of the presidential campaign. Dennard is starring in a new political ad for President Biden’s re-election campaign, in which she describes her diagnosis and having to leave Texas and its restrictive abortion law to get an abortion. Democrats like Biden are increasingly having women describe, in stark, emotional detail, the personal impact of the abortion bans championed by their Republican opponents. Andy Beshear, a Democrat seeking re-election in Kentucky, ran an ad featuring a woman who said she was raped as child by her stepfather, criticizing a state abortion ban with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Persons: Austin Dennard, Biden’s, Biden, Andy Beshear Organizations: OB, Republican Locations: Dallas, Texas, Kentucky
As former President Donald J. Trump speeds toward the Republican nomination, President Biden is moving quickly to pump energy into his re-election bid, kicking off what is likely to be an ugly, dispiriting and historically long slog to November between two unpopular nominees. After months of languid buildup in which he held only a single public campaign event, Mr. Biden has thrown a series of rallies across battleground states, warning that democracy itself is at stake in 2024. He sent two of his most trusted White House operatives to take the helm of his re-election campaign in Wilmington, Del., after Mr. Trump seized control of the Republican primary race more rapidly than Mr. Biden’s advisers had initially expected. And other Biden aides are drafting wish lists of potential surrogates, including elected officials, social media influencers and the endorsement of their wildest dreams: the global superstar Taylor Swift.
Persons: Donald J, Biden, Trump, Taylor Swift Organizations: Trump, Republican, White Locations: Wilmington, Del
For weeks, Donald J. Trump has romped through Iowa and New Hampshire without breaking a sweat, muscling out rivals for the Republican nomination and soaking up adoration from crowds convinced he will be the next president of the United States. But as Mr. Trump marches steadily toward his party’s nomination, a harsher reality awaits him. Outside the soft bubble of Republican primaries, Mr. Trump’s campaign is confronting enduring vulnerabilities that make his nomination a considerable risk for his party. Mr. Trump still won easily. Ron DeSantis of Florida said Tuesday in an interview with Blaze TV, a conservative media company, just a couple of days after he ended his own campaign and endorsed Mr. Trump.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Nikki Haley, Mr, Republicans clamoring, MAGA, Reagan, Ron DeSantis, he’s, Organizations: Republican, Republicans, Mr, Trump, Blaze Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, United States, , Florida
The much-fabled power of New Hampshire’s fiercely independent voters wasn’t enough to break the spell Donald J. Trump has cast over the Republican Party. His winning margin of 11 percentage points in moderate New Hampshire demonstrated his ironclad control of the party’s hard-right base and set him on what could very well be a short march to the nomination. For Ms. Haley, the former South Carolina governor, it was a disappointing finish in a state she had poured considerable resources into carrying. Her efforts to cobble together a coalition of independents and anti-Trump Republicans, with support from the state’s popular governor, were no match for Mr. Trump’s legions of loyalists. Even though Ms. Haley is vowing to fight on, the difficult terrain ahead in South Carolina means that this first-in-the-nation primary could turn out to be the last.
Persons: Hampshire’s, Donald J, Trump, Nikki Haley, steamrolled, Ron DeSantis, Haley, Trump’s Organizations: Republican Party, Republican, White House, South, Trump Republicans Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina
Reading the Signs in New Hampshire
  + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Lisa Lerer | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
If you want to understand the New Hampshire primary, stand at the corner of West Broadway and Valley Street in Derry, N.H. There are two huge yard signs — one for Nikki Haley and one for Donald Trump — on adjacent houses. Not exactly: When my colleague Michael Bender headed there recently, neighbors told him that the pro-Haley house had been vacant for years, and that political campaigns often planted their signs there. The race looks like a real contest, with yard signs and all the usual campaign events. Yet when you dig a little deeper, there’s far less going on than it may seem.
Persons: Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, Michael Bender, Haley Organizations: Trump Locations: Hampshire, West Broadway, Derry, N.H, Florida
With only about 48 hours left to campaign in the New Hampshire primary, Nikki Haley finally got the two-person race she wanted. For months, it has been an article of faith among Ms. Haley’s supporters and a coalition of anti-Trump Republicans that the only way to defeat Donald J. Trump was to winnow the field to a one-on-one contest and consolidate support among his opponents. That wishcasting became reality on Sunday afternoon, when Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida ended his White House bid. And yet, as the race reached the final day, there was little sign that Mr. DeSantis’s departure would transform Ms. Haley’s chances of winning.
Persons: Nikki Haley, Haley’s, Donald J, Trump, Ron DeSantis, DeSantis’s Organizations: Trump Republicans, Gov Locations: New Hampshire, Florida
The first-in-the-nation primary could be the last stand for the anti-Trump Republican. Since 2016, a shrinking band of Republican strategists, retired lawmakers and donors has tried to oust Donald J. Trump from his commanding position in the party. Ahead of New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday, the old guard of the G.O.P. Anything but a very close finish for her in the state, where moderate, independent voters make up 40 percent of the electorate, would send Mr. Trump on an all-but-unstoppable march to the nomination. Yet, their long-running war against him has helped to frame the nominating contest around a central, and deeply tribal, litmus test: loyalty to Mr. Trump.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Trump Republicans won’t, Nikki Haley Organizations: Trump Republican, Trump Republicans
Mr. Trump’s overwhelming victory again demonstrated his enduring command of the Republican Party. Ron DeSantis of Florida narrowly pulled ahead of Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor. Their close finish gave both a rationale for continuing their campaigns, which is likely to help Mr. Trump. After so many months of attacks between her and Mr. DeSantis, the old political trope held true: In 2024, there are three “tickets” out of Iowa. But Mr. Trump rides away on a bullet train.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Trump’s, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Haley, DeSantis Organizations: Republican Party, Gov, South Locations: Iowa, Florida, South Carolina, New Hampshire
On the Ballot in Iowa: Fear. Anxiety. Hopelessness.
  + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( Lisa Lerer | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Presidential elections traditionally speak to future aspirations, offering a vision of a better tomorrow, the hope and change of Barack Obama or the compassionate conservatism of George W. Bush. Yet this year, even before a single vote has been cast, a far darker sentiment has taken hold. Across Iowa, as the first nominating contest approaches on Monday, voters plow through snowy streets to hear from candidates, mingle at campaign events and casually talk of the prospect of World War III, civil unrest and a nation coming apart at the seams. Four years ago, voters worried about a spiraling pandemic, economic uncertainty and national protests. “In Iowa, life isn’t lived in extremes, except the weather, and yet they still feel this dramatic sense of inevitable doom.”
Persons: Barack Obama, George W, Bush, , Doug Gross, Nikki Haley, isn’t Organizations: Capitol, Republican, Locations: Iowa
These young voters faulted Israel’s response to the attacks, 52-32 percent. This wartime shift represents a fundamental break within a liberal coalition that has long powered the Democratic Party. Clearly, the most left-leaning young adults have the lowest rating of Israel. The Arab American Institute commissioned John Zogby Strategies to conduct a survey of 500 Arab Americans between Oct. 23 and Oct. 27. In this poll, 32 percent of Arab Americans identified as Republican as opposed to just 23 percent who identified as Democrats.
Persons: Biden’s, Biden, Donald Trump, Gallup, Jennifer Medina, Lisa Lerer, Benjamin Netanyahu, Bruce Cain, nonwhite, Cain, Siena, Hillary, , Norman Ornstein, ” Ornstein, Ornstein, Liz Skalka, Daniel Marans, Akbar Shahid Ahmed, , Robbie Gramer, ” Gramer, ’ Gramer, ” Amy Mackinnon, Gramer, Antony Blinken, ” Yossi Hasson, Maya Tamir, Kea, Brahms, J, Christopher Cohrs, Eran Halperin, Niloufar Zebarjadi, Eliyahu Adler, Annika Kluge, Mikko Sams, Jonathan Levy, Zebarjadi, Jeremy Konyndyk, Harris, ” Laura Royden, Eitan Hersh, ” “, Hersh, Israel favorability, Young, John Zogby, Zogby, Farah Pandith, Pandith, , Trump, Julie Wronski, Wronski, Stephen Ansolabehere Organizations: Quinnipiac University Poll, Biden, Democratic, West Bank, Democratic Party, Stanford, American Enterprise Institute, Democratic National Committee, State Department, U.S, USAID, United States Agency for International Development, Foreign, Liberals, Aalto University, USAID’s, U.S . Foreign, Politico, U.S ., Harvard, , Israel, Young American Left, Tufts, Republicans, U.S.A, , Arab American Institute, American, Council, Foreign Relations, University of Mississippi Locations: Israel, Gaza, Medina, United States, Washington, Palestinian, , Finland, Russia, Ukraine, U.S, Palestine, Michigan, America
Democrats argued that the results on Tuesday night showed abortion’s resonance even in some of the country’s most conservative areas. Support for the measure enshrining abortion rights was notably higher than the backing for the Democratic candidate for Senate last year, particularly in the suburban swing counties surrounding Columbus and Cleveland. The results will almost certainly require the State Supreme Court to invalidate a six-week ban with limited exceptions that passed in 2019. Republicans have been searching in vain for a successful message on abortion ever since the Supreme Court’s decision. For nearly a half-century, Republican candidates had simply proclaimed themselves “pro-life,” without delving into the details of what that meant.
Persons: Beshear, Hadley Duvall, Duvall, Trump, Roe, Glenn Youngkin, Organizations: Republican Party, Democratic, Court, Republicans, Republican, State Senate Locations: Kentucky, Ohio, Columbus, Cleveland, Virginia
Black voters are more disconnected from the Democratic Party than they have been in decades, frustrated with what many see as inaction on their political priorities and unhappy with President Biden, a candidate they helped lift to the White House just three years ago. New polls by The New York Times and Siena College found that 22 percent of Black voters in six of the most important battleground states said they would support former President Donald J. Trump in next year’s election, and 71 percent would back Mr. Biden. The drift in support is striking, given that Mr. Trump won just 8 percent of Black voters nationally in 2020 and 6 percent in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center. A Republican presidential candidate has not won more than 12 percent of the Black vote in nearly half a century. Mr. Biden has a year to shore up his standing, but if numbers like these held up across the country in November 2024, they would amount to a historic shift: No Democratic presidential candidate since the civil rights era has earned less than 80 percent of the Black vote.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump, Mr Organizations: Democratic Party, House, The New York Times, Siena College, Pew Research Center, Republican, Democratic
The Times/Siena College battleground polls released on Sunday and Monday were conducted over the past week in six swing states that are likely to decide the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Five of the states were won by Donald J. Trump in 2016 and then flipped by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. Nevada, which has always been a close state, came down to less than one percentage point in the 2022 U.S. Senate election. These states also contain some of the coalitions that will be crucial next fall: younger, more diverse voters in states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada; and white working-class voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin who helped swing the election to Trump in 2016, and were central to Mr. Biden’s 2020 victory. They also provide some geographic diversity.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Joseph R, Biden, Biden’s Organizations: Trump Locations: Siena, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, . Nevada, Nevada, Michigan , Pennsylvania
Now, as abortion restrictions and bans in red states have become reality, the issue is again on the ballot, both explicitly and implicitly, in races across the country. In Kentucky, Democrats are testing whether abortion can provide a political advantage even in a red state, as Gov. In Ohio, a socially conservative state, a ballot question that would enshrine abortion rights in the State Constitution will measure the extent of the country’s political pivot toward abortion rights. And in Virginia, the only Southern state without an abortion ban, Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, is trying to flip the script in the state’s legislative elections, casting Democrats as “extreme” and saying his party supports a “common-sense position” — a 15-week ban.
Persons: Roe, Wade, Andy Beshear, Roe —, Glenn Youngkin Organizations: Democrat, Republican Locations: In Kentucky, Ohio, State, Virginia
Erwin Chemerinsky, the dean of the law school at the University of California, Berkeley, said Republicans were mischaracterizing a complex, emotionally fraught issue to score political points. students, the university no doubt would crack down and make sure that this was a safe space for them on the college campuses,” Mr. Brooks said. “They’re not doing that for the Jewish students. Now they offer pathetic equivocation or, worse, deafening silence.”“They seem more offended by ‘microaggressions’ than by mass murder,” Mr. Scott said. “If this were any other minority group, hear me, the far left would be screaming from the rooftops.”
Persons: Biden, ” Jonathan Greenblatt, , Israel ”, Erwin Chemerinsky, , Chemerinsky, Matt Brooks, Mr, Brooks, “ They’re, Tim Scott of, ‘ microaggressions, ” Mr, Scott Organizations: Justice Department, Department of Homeland Security, Defamation League, Democrats, Republicans provocatively, University of California, Fox News, Democratic Party, Republican Jewish Coalition, American Locations: Berkeley, Israel, Tim Scott of South Carolina
The departure from the race came less than 90 days before the Iowa caucuses, on which Mr. Pence had staked his candidacy. But while Iowa is a more difficult early state in the Republican primary contests for Mr. Trump than some of the others, the former president remains dominant there. Mr. Pence is the highest-profile candidate to leave the race, and the first of those who had met the Republican National Committee’s criteria for the primary debates. Mr. Pence’s campaign recently reported more than $600,000 in debt. But Mr. Pence, a former governor of Indiana, struggled mightily to raise money, never gaining traction in the polls that his former running mate has dominated.
Persons: Pence, Trump, Mr, Pence’s, Ronald Reagan, mightily, Biden’s Organizations: Republican, Trump —, Republican National, Trump -, Republican Party, D.C Locations: Iowa, Miami, Indiana, Washington, Fulton County ,
In remarks before a gathering of Jewish Republicans in Las Vegas, Ms. Haley highlighted remarks by Mr. Trump criticizing Israeli intelligence and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as weak just days after the attack. We have no time for personal vendettas,” she told the crowd of nearly 1,500 donors, activists and officials. The annual gathering of the Republican Jewish Coalition has become perhaps the highest-profile gathering of the Republican primary season, taking on greater urgency after Hamas’s attack on Israel three weeks ago. Support for Israel unifies a broad coalition of Republican voters and officials, including foreign policy hawks, business leaders and evangelical Christians. Over a Shabbat dinner on Friday night, several Republican officials pledged their support for Israel and the Jewish people before an audience of 1,500 donors, activists and officials.
Persons: Nikki Haley, Donald J, Trump, Haley, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s, , Biden, Mike Pence —, “ It’s, Abraham, Mike Johnson, Israel unifies, Joe Lombardo, America’s, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, David Kustoff, Israel, Rick Scott of Florida Organizations: United Nations, Jewish Republicans, , Abraham Accords, United Arab, Israel, Republican Jewish Coalition, Republican, , Saturday, Democratic, Mr Locations: Las Vegas, America, Israel, Jerusalem, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Nevada, Tennessee
Security has been tightened and seats added to accommodate a wave of new attendees who decided to come after the Oct. 7 attacks. Speakers at the Las Vegas gathering will also include Senator John Thune, the second-ranking Senate Republican; Gov. Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Scott strongly denounced those remarks, and Mr. Trump spent several days walking them back. He also cut aid for Palestinians, and his administration took steps to designate a campaign to boycott Israel as antisemitic. Marc Goldman, a Boca Raton, Fla., investor on the group’s board, said he backed Mr. Trump in 2020 and was likely to support him again.
Persons: , Ari Fleischer, George W, Bush, Donald J, Trump, Mike Johnson, John Thune, Sarah Sanders of, Joe Lombardo, Matt Brooks, ” Eric Levine, Levine, Tim Scott of, , Biden’s, Biden, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ron DeSantis, ” Nikki Haley, DeSantis, Haley, Scott, Pell, Benjamin Netanyahu, Marc Goldman, Mr, Goldman Organizations: Republican Jewish Coalition, Republican, Jewry, American, Republican Jewish, Israel Defense Forces, Gov, Republican Party, Israel, America, Mr, Abraham Accords, United Locations: Israel, United States, Las Vegas, Gaza, America, Louisiana, Vegas, Sarah Sanders of Arkansas, Joe Lombardo of Nevada, New York, Iran, China, Russia, Tim Scott of South Carolina, Tehran, Doha, Qatar, Florida, U.S, Jerusalem, Boca Raton, Fla
In Los Angeles, Rabbi Sharon Brous, a well-known progressive activist who regularly criticizes the Israeli government, described from the pulpit her horror and feelings of “existential loneliness,” her voice breaking. From email listservs of progressive Jewish groups to protests on university campuses to social-media campaigns by prominent liberal Jewish celebrities like Sarah Silverman, the war is bringing to a head more than a decade of tensions about Israel on the American left. Interviews with dozens of liberal Jewish leaders and voters, and a review of social media posts, private emails and text chains of liberal Jewish groups, reveal a politically engaged swath of American Jewry who are reaching a breaking point. He sent hundreds of letters to Los Angeles city officials urging them to denounce the organization and label it a “hate group.” The D.S.A. Polling since the attacks indicates strong national backing for Israel, including a notable uptick in support among Democrats.
Persons: Rabbi Sharon Brous, , , I’m, Sarah Silverman, Benjamin Netanyahu, Nick Melvoin, Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel, Martin Luther King Jr, Eric Spiegelman, Spiegelman, Biden, Trump, Israel, ” Eva Borgwardt, IfNotNow Organizations: West Bank, Democratic Party, New Israel Fund, Israel, Facebook, Jewish, Los Angeles Unified School Board, Democratic Socialists of America, Democratic, Younger, U.S, Capitol Locations: Gaza, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Israel, Angeles, Palestine, United States, America, New York City, American
In the post-debate polling, Mr. Trump gained more support than any of the candidates who did appear on the stage. Since then, as his legal cases play out in the courts, Mr. Trump has grown more extreme, and violent, in his rhetoric. It remains to be seen whether the second debate will persuade top donors still on the sidelines to consolidate behind an alternative to Mr. Trump. Rather than attending the debate, Mr. Trump will appear with union workers in Detroit. A bad night, or just an invisible night, for Mr. Scott would dim hopes of a resurgence.
Persons: Trump, Mark Milley, , Scott, Haley, Ramaswamy, Tim Scott Organizations: Joint Chiefs of Staff, Republican National, bickered, Reagan Locations: America, Israel, Iowa, Detroit, Milwaukee
As President Biden shifts his re-election campaign into higher gear, the strength of his candidacy is being tested by a striking divide between Democratic leaders, who are overwhelmingly unified behind his bid, and rank-and-file voters in the party who harbor persistent doubts about whether he is their best option. From the highest levels of the party on down, Democratic politicians and party officials have long dismissed the idea that Mr. Biden should have any credible primary challenger. Yet despite their efforts — and the president’s lack of a serious opponent within his party — they have been unable to dispel Democratic concerns about him that center largely on his age and vitality. The discord between the party’s elite and its voters leaves Democrats confronting a level of disunity over a president running for re-election not seen for decades. Interviews with more than a dozen strategists, elected officials and voters this past week, conversations with Democrats since Mr. Biden’s campaign began in April, and months of public polling data show that this disconnect has emerged as a defining obstacle for his candidacy, worrying Democrats from liberal enclaves to swing states to the halls of power in Washington.
Persons: Biden, , Biden’s Organizations: Democratic, Democrats Locations: Washington
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